基于群组决策的PFI模式水电项目投资风险分析

针对PFI项目产生的风险具有特殊性和复杂性。首先,通过思维导图和因果分析法识别主要风险指标;然后,应用群组决策层次分析法对3种投资策略进行风险评价。分析结果表明:我国的风险权重和国外不同,经济风险最大,社会其次,技术风险最小;独资风险最大,控股风险略大于参股风险。最后,通过挖掘专家的隐性知识,建议国有资本应占30%~40%,民营资本占60%~70%,但所有股东中,无论国有还是民营,最大股东所占份额不超过30%。

Investment risk analysis of PFI mode water conservancy and hydropower projects based onmulti-HP model

The risk of PFI projects is of particularityand complexity. Firstly, the mind map and causalityanalysis are used to identify the key risk indices.Secondly, the multi-AHP model is adopted to evaluatethe risk of three kinds of investment strategies. Theresults show that the risk weight in China is differentfrom that in foreign countries, i. e. , the economic riskis the largest, followed by the social one, and thetechnical risk is the smallest. The sole proprietorshiphas the largest risk, and the control risk is slightlygreater than the risk of equity. Finally, by mining theexperts'' implicit knowledge, it is suggested that thestate-owned capital should account for 30% ~40% andthe private capital for 60% ~ 70%. However, for allthe shareholders, whether the state-owned or theprivate, the largest shareholder of the share should beless than 30%.