Malthus's evolutionary model,expectations, and innovation

The conventional view of Malthus is one of a reactionary who failed to understand how innovation could refute his pessimism about population and economic growth. This article aims to show that this is quite incorrect, and has arisen primarily through failing to interpret Malthus as an evolutionary thinker. Malthus had little personal knowledge of the supply side of production in firms, and his growth model is entirely demand-led; but as such it remains one of the most complete demand-side explanations of economic growth in existence. The major role of innovations is highlighted in the article: Malthus's main point is that labour-saving innovation alone will not sustain economic growth in the long run, unless matched by growing demand-instead it would generate economic fluctuations. the article concludes by listing the range of such fluctuations espoused, from the very short run to the very long run (long waves).This article is a revised and shortened version of a paper delivered to the IXth Internationalen Demographischen Seminar at the Institut für Demographie, Humboldt University, Berlin, in October 1990. I should like to thank participants in that Seminar and also the two referees of this Journal for their supportive and constructive comments.