Can analysts predict rallies better than crashes? |
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Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, University of Birmingham, UK;2. Department of Business Administration, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece;3. Department of Economics, Athens University of Economics and Business, Greece |
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Abstract: | We use the copula approach to study the structure of dependence between sell-side analysts’ consensus recommendations and subsequent security returns, with a focus on asymmetric tail dependence. We match monthly vintages of I/B/E/S recommendations for the period January–December 2011 with excess security returns during six months following recommendation issue. Using a mixed Gaussian–symmetrized Joe–Clayton copula model we find evidence to suggest that analysts can identify stocks that will substantially outperform, but not underperform relative to the market, and that their predictive ability is conditional on recommendation changes. |
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Keywords: | Analyst recommendations Copulas Non-linear dependence |
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