广东省财政支出对居民消费的效应分析

金融危机造成中国出口大量减少给经济增长带来巨大压力，扩大内需、刺激消费成为促进经济持续健康发展的首选。基于对1978—2009年广东省财政支出与居民消费之间关系的研究发现：短期内财政支出对居民消费具有挤入效应，长期内具有挤出效应，并且财政支出变化是居民消费变化的Granger成因；居民可支配收入对消费无论在长期还是短期都具有挤入效应，长期内更明显。最后，立足财政挤出与挤入效应从区域层面提出了促进广东省消费需求的财政政策建议。

The Effect of Financial Expenditure on Household Consumption in Guangdong Province

A significant reduction in China's exports caused by the financial crisis has put a serious pressure on economic growth.Therefore,expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption are the first choice to promote economy and keep the sustainable and healthy development.This paper selects the data of financial expenditure and consumption from 1978-2009 as samples to analyze empirically.The conclusion is that the fiscal expenditure has a crowding-in effect on consumption in the short run,a crowding-out eff...