基于城市CA模型的空间扩展浅析

综合国内外40多年专家学者对城市演变格局中转换规则、控制因子、模拟精度的研究实例,得出结论:(1)CA模型在城市扩展预测中,仍需要加深对地理现象演变过程的机理研究和模拟;(2)城市模型的适用性有待进一步提升;(3)众多实例中有少部分精度在90%以上的情况,证明精度模拟水平仍可通过此类系统分析提升。城市扩展的时空演变研究应从实际解决快速城市化问题的视角,发掘CA模型对城市时空变化格局的正面影响,探索CA模型应对城市扩展的主动策略。

Study development on Dynamic Simulation of Urban Growth Based on CA Model

Through the analysis research platform, the research model, both in China and abroad, over the years the experts or scholars of urban evolution pattern transformation rules and char-acteristics, control factor, the simulation accuracy of the case study, the tight land faced by China's rapid urbanization, traffic congestion, environmental pollution serious serious problem. The paper draws the following conclusions: (1) CA model in urban expansion prediction, simulation is successful or not depends on the calculation method of determining, but still need to deepen in the evolution of the mechanism research and Simulation of geo-graphic phenomena; (2) city model applicability remains to be fur-ther enhance; (3) many examples in overall accuracy range general between the 75%-85%, but there are still reach an accuracy of more than 90% of the proved on the simulation accuracy level can still improve. Spatial and temporal evolution of urban expansion of the research on it should solve the actual problems of rapid urbanization perspective, to explore the CA model positive impact on the urban spatial and temporal changes in patterns of explore CA model to deal with urban expansion of proactive strategy.