Examining salesperson versus sales manager evaluation of customer opportunities: A psychological momentum perspective on optimism,confidence, and overconfidence

Making correct decisions regarding the merit of sales opportunities, as well as deciding which opportunities to pursue and which to abandon, is one of the most critical tasks sales managers and salespeople grapple with. These frontline assessments typically become sales forecasts that are used to allocate resources within the firm. Assessments of future sales, however, are often inaccurate and little is known about how salespeople and sales managers make decisions about sales opportunities, or if they differ in their ability to (correctly) assess the merits of such opportunities. To address this research gap, we explore several decision-making biases – namely optimism, confidence, and overconfidence – through the lenses of both Psychological Momentum (PM) and Strategic Reference Point (SRP) theory. Analysis of rich CRM data from a Fortune 500 medical products company, across three studies, demonstrates notable differences between salespeople and sales managers concerning decision-making biases that influence their evaluations of sales opportunities.