头程运费、国际贸易与经济增长-来自中国120个城市的经验证据

本文首次使用头程运费刻画国内不同地区面临的进出口阻力,考察内生国际贸易与经济绩效的关系。IV结果表明OLS并没有高估国际贸易对中国经济增长的贡献,一旦控制了国际贸易,沿海地区并没有表现出更为出色的经济绩效;若国际贸易量提高1%,那么该地区人均GDP可望增长0.19%—0.22%。工具变量通过了严格的相关性和外生性检验,子样本敏感分析和控制变量方法保障了结论的稳健性。

One Freight Costs,International Trade and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on China's 120 Cities

one freight costs reflect the frictions faced by import and export, so it can be used as an iv for international trade1 our iv results show that ols doesn. t overestimate the contribution of international trade to chinaps economic growth, and once international trade is controlled, the coastal areas does not show better economic performance1 if international trade increased by 1% per capita gdp would grow faster by 01 19% ) 0122%1 the iv passes strict tests of correlation and exogenous; sub-sample sensitivity and control variable tests show robustness of our results1