教育融资体制对代际流动性与不平等程度的动态影响：基于OL G模型的分析

传统的代际流动性研究并没有对代际流动性的短期值和长期值作有效区分，也未考虑人力资本形成中的不确定性，因而“代际流动性越高则不平等程度越低”这一分析结论并未在中国的现实中呈现。文章据此通过构建一个代际交叠模型比较分析了公共教育体制和市场教育体制下的代际流动性。模型动态分析发现：(1)公共教育体制下的不平等程度的长期值比市场教育体制下更低。(2)代际流动性短期值的升高并不总是伴随着不平等程度的下降，当社会受到某种剧烈冲击时可能发生两者同升同降的情况。(3)政府进行激进式的教育体制改革会使人力资本收敛速率发生跃升，并且使不平等程度的短期值和长期值都增大，而代际流动性则会在突降后在逐渐收敛到新的更低的稳态值。(4)人力资本积累不确定性参数值反映了个体不可观测的技能或先天禀赋，是影响代际流动性和不平等程度的重要因素。不确定性的突然上升会使不平等程度的短期值迅速上升，并且会使不平等程度的长期值达到新的高位，虽然代际流动性短期值也会迅速上升，但依旧会逐渐收敛到以前的稳态值不变。文章的研究有益于厘清代际流动性与不平等程度的复杂关系，也能为相关实证研究提供参考。

The Dynamic Effect of Education Financing System on Intergenerational Mobility and Inequality:Analysis Based on Overlapping Generation Model

Some related research of intergenerational mobility concludes that “higher-level intergenerational mobility results in lower-degree inequality”,but this does not seem to be consistent with China’s reality completely.The possible reasons lie in that traditional intergenerational mobility research does not distinguish between long-run and short-run values effectively,and also does not take the uncertainty of human capital formation into account.In view of these problems,this paper constructs an overlapping generations model and makes a comparative analysis of intergenerational mobility in public education system and market education system.Accordingly,it comes to the conclusions as follows:firstly, long-run inequality in public education system is always lower than one in market education system;secondly,the increase in short-term,intergenerational mobility is not always accompanied by inequality,and when the society is subj ect to some intensive shocks,the same increase or decrease in these two may occur;thirdly,radical education system reform leads to sharp rise in convergence rate of human capital and the increase in short-term and long-term in equality,and the intergenerational mobility constantly converges to new and lower steady-state value after sudden drop;fourthly,the parameter value of the uncertainty of human capital accumulation reflects unpredicable skills or innate endowments of individ-uals,and is an important factor affecting interfeneratonal mobility and in equality;the sudden rise in uncertainty leads to the sharp increase in short-run inequality &a new high level of long-term inequality,and rapid rise in short-run intergenerational mobility,but its steady-state value remains constant.These conclusions are beneficial to the clarification of the complex relationship between intergenerational mobility and inequality,and also can pro-vide reference for relevant empirical research.