房价波动、调控政策立场估计及其影响效应研究--基于1998-2014年数据的实证分析

调控政策对房价的反应、立场和影响效应是政府政策设计的重要依据,2007年底金融危机爆发后,调控政策和房价波动都发生了显著变化。文章以2008年为界,构建了三个房价和政策变量的月度时间序列样本：1998-2007年、2008-2014年和1998-2014年,在此基础上,对2008年前后调控政策的反应、立场和影响效应进行了实证分析。结果表明：(1)实际贷款利率和货币供应量在2008年前后对目标变量的反应是交错变化的,货币供应量对房价的反应与假定相反,货币政策并未对房价做出充分反应,而财政和土地政策表现出了较好的反应结果。(2)货币供应量对房价波动的影响最大,是房价持续上涨的重要原因,2008年以来,固定资产投资的影响非常显著,脉冲响应分析发现利率只能在短期内对房价产生负向影响,除土地政策外,货币和财政政策皆会在长期内对房价产生稳定影响。文章的研究为推进房价政策调控和房地产市场健康稳定发展提供了可靠的经验支持。

Fluctuations in Housing Prices,Stance Estimation of Macro-control Policy and Its Influence Effect:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 1998 to 2014

The reaction,stance and influence effect of macro-control policy on housing prices are the important basis for the design of government policies.Since at the end of 2007 financial crisis was broke out,macro-control policy and housing prices fluctuations have changed significantly.This paper accordingly constructs three monthly time series samples of housing prices and policy variables bounded by 2008:1998-2007,2008-2014 and 1998-2014.Then the paper makes an empirical analysis of the reaction,stance and influ-ence effect of macro-control policy on housing prices before and after 2008.The results show as follows:firstly,reactions of real lending rate and money supply to obj ective varia-bles are interlaced with each other before and after 2008;money supply reacts to housing prices contrary to the assumption,monetary policy does not react to housing price suffi-ciently,however,fiscal and land policies make better results;secondly,money supply is an important reason for rising prices with the biggest effect,and the impact of fixed asset investment is very significant since 2008;impulse response analysis reveals that interest rate influences housing prices in negative direction only in the short term,and except land policy,fiscal and monetary policies both have stable impacts on housing prices in the long period.It provides reliable evidence for the advancement of macro-control policy and healthy and stable development of real estale market.