户籍制度改革对农村劳动力流动影响模拟研究?--基于新经济地理学视角

文章基于新经济地理学中间投入品模型，将户籍制度、土地产权制度和不同劳动力流动模式等因素纳入研究框架中，构建了中国户籍制度演变模型，并通过数值计算模拟了户籍制度和土地产权制度改革对农村劳动力流动的影响。研究结果表明：(1)不同户籍制度的改革路径极大地影响了农村劳动力转移和经济发展，如果降低户籍制度对劳动力流动的束缚，经济系统会释放巨大的改革红利，而维持当前户籍制度不变将遭受较大损失；(2)不同土地产权制度的改革路径影响了户籍制度的改革效果，如果农民工“带着土地”进行转移将会放大户籍制度改革所释放的红利。这表明户籍制度改革和土地产权制度改革要协同进行，不仅要减少户籍制度对农民工迁移的束缚，还应保留其农用地承包权和宅基地使用权。文章的研究不仅丰富和完善了现有劳动力迁移理论，也为地方政府相关决策提供了新的思路。

A Simulation Research of the Effect of the Reform of the Household Registration System on the Flow of Rural Labor Force:A Perspective of New Economic Geography

Based on the intermediate inputs model in new economic geography,this paper incorporates factors such as the household registration system,land property right system and the modes of the flow of labor force,and constructs the evolution model of the household registration system in China.Then it simulates the influences of the reform of the household registration system and land property right system on the flow of rural labor force by numerical calculation.It arrives at the conclusions as follows:firstly,different routes to the reform of the household registration system greatly affect the flow of rural la-bor force and economic development;if the restriction of the household registration system on the flow of labor force reduces,the economic system will release huge reform divi-dends,and if current household registration system remains,we will suffer great losses;secondly,different routes to the reform of the land property right system affect the results of the reform of the household registration system,and if the flow of rural labor force is accompanied by land,the dividends from the reform of the household registration system will enlarge.It shows that the reform of the household registration system and land prop-erty right system should be carried out together;not only the restriction of the household registration system on the flow of labor force should reduce,but also agricultural land con-tract rights and the right to the use of residence base should remain.It enriches & perfects current labor migration theory,and also provides a new idea for related decision-making of local governments.