生态赤字税：理论与实证研究框架

文章基于生态足迹核算方法和生态服务价值理论所确定的价格体系，在核算生态赤字及其价值并提出其价值补偿的环境税方案的基础上，将生态占用作为一种要素投入，构建绿色社会核算矩阵和环境税 CGE 模型，通过数值模拟比较分析了在5%、10%和30%的补偿强度下税收方案的环境效应、就业效应、增长效应、分配效应和贸易效应。模拟结果表明：(1)生态赤字税方案具有减少生态占用和增加就业的双重红利效应；(2)各部门的总产出和中间投入总体上下降，但名义 GDP 增长，绿色 GDP 增幅更大，而实际 GDP 则下降，表明税收政策会造成价格指数一定程度的上升；(3)政府税收收入因生态赤字补偿额度较大而增长较快，且增速高于劳动和资本要素报酬的增长，但居民收入和企业收入比重略有下降。基于我国资源与环境等税收在总税收中的比重，以及 OECD 国家的税制结构和变化趋势，文章最后建议生态赤字税的补偿性税率应低于5%。

Ecological Deficit Tax:A Theoretical and Empirical Research Framework

Based on price system determined by ecological footprint analysis and eco-logical service value theory,this paper calculates ecological deficits and their value,propo-ses environmental tax plan of value compensation,constructs green social accounting ma-trix and environmental tax CGE model by regarding ecological occupation as an input fac-tor,and analyzes the environmental,employment,growth,distribution and trade effects of tax plan under 5%,10% and 30% of compensation intensity through comparative anal-ysis of numerical simulation.It comes to the results as follows:firstly,the ecological defi-cit tax plan has a double dividend effect on the reduction in ecological occupation and em-ployment growth;secondly,the total output and intermediate inputs decline as a whole;the nominal GDP increases and the green GDP grows faster,but the real GDP declines,in-dicating that tax policies can result in the rise in price indexes to a certain extent;thirdly, owing to higher-level ecological deficit compensation ,government tax revenues improve greatly,and their growth rate is higher than the growth rates of labor and capital factors, but the proportions of income of residents and corporate revenues decline slightly.Based on the proportions of resources related tax and environmental tax in total tax revenues,as well as the tax structures and changing trends of OECD nations,this paper finally suggests that compensatory rate of the ecological deficit tax should be lower than 5%.