| 中国养老金隐性债务、转轨成本、改革方式及其影响——可计算一般均衡分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 王燕,徐滇庆,王直,翟凡.中国养老金隐性债务、转轨成本、改革方式及其影响——可计算一般均衡分析[J].经济研究,2001(5). |
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| 作者姓名： | 王燕 徐滇庆 王直 翟凡 |
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| 作者单位： | 世界银行(王燕)，加拿大西安大略大学(徐滇庆)，美国农业部(王直)，国务院发展研究中心(翟凡) |
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| 摘 要： | 中国经济改革所遇到的一个严重障碍就是缺少一个有效的和可持续的养老金体系。在考察了国际经验后 ,本文利用可计算一般均衡模型分析了中国养老金改革的影响 ,并比较了支付隐性养老金债务和转制成本的各种选择方案。通过考察各种改革方案对养老体系自身可持续性和整个经济增长的影响 ,模拟结果表明中国养老金体制的改革虽然任重道远 ,但仍是富有希望的。
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| 关 键 词： | 养老金隐性债务 转轨成本 可计算一般均衡分析 |
The Implicit Debt,Transition Cost,Reform Forms and the Influence of China's Pension System |
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| Abstract: | One of the serious obstacles in China is economic reform is the lack of an efficient and sustainable pension system.After an investigation of international experience in this regard,this paper carried out an analysis of the influence of China's pension reform and its transition cost and a comparison of the alternatives of repayment for the implicit pension debt and transaction cost based on the model of countalbe general equilibrium.The simulation,as a result of a study of the impact of reform alternatives on the sustainability of pension system and the economic growth as a whole,shows that the reform of China's pension system is fully promising although it shoulders heavy responsibilties. |
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