全球产业布局调整背景下中国制造业外迁问题研究

本文通过构建中美多区域投入产出模型,从制造业的三个技术类别、两个发展阶段以及三个影响渠道定量测算了制造业外迁对中国GDP和产业结构的影响。研究发现:(1)中国对美出口以高技术产品为主,高技术制造业受美制约较大,需要重点关注;(2)制造业外迁通过直接效应、关联效应和溢出效应三个渠道产生影响,短期内直接效应是主要影响渠道,而长期内溢出效应是造成部门间差异的主要因素;(3)短期内低技术制造业外迁对国内GDP的影响程度最大,长期内中高技术制造业的影响将超过低技术制造业,而且中高技术制造业外迁更加不利于国内产业结构升级。为减轻产业外迁的冲击,本文建议应对不同技术类别的制造业采取差异化政策,特别要注重强化中高技术制造业在产业链上的主导性与不可替代性。

A Study on the Relocation of Chinese Manufacturing Industry under the Adjustment of Global Industrial Division

Based on the International Input-output Model and WIOD data in 2014,this paper quantitatively estimates the impact of manufacturing transfer on China's GDP and industrial structure from three technological categories,two stages and three channels.This paper finds that;(1)China’s exports to lire United States are mainly high-tech products,and the high-tech manufacturing industry is greatly constrained by lire United Stales,which deserves priority attention;(2)Manufacturing industry transfer has an impact through three channels;direct effect,correlation rffect am!spillover effect,and tire direct effect is the main channel in the short term,but in lire king term.the spillover effect is the main factor causing inter-industry differences;(3)In the short run,the transfer of low-tech manufacturing industry has lire greatest impact on domestic GDP,while in the long run,the transfer of medium-and high-tech manufacturing industry will have a greater impact and be more unfavorable to tire upgrading of domestic industrial structure.In order to mitigate the impact of industry transfer,this paper suggests that different policies should Ire adopted for different types of manufacturing industries,with special emphasis on strengthening lire dominance and irreplaceability of high-tech manufacturing industry in lire industrial chain.