从“三元悖论”谈我国人民币汇率制度的选择

作为经典的汇率制度选择依据——“三元悖论“，长期以来一直被学术界所信奉，同样在我国，近年来关于人民币汇率制度的选择问题也是一直以此为基石。认为人民币汇率制度的选择主要依据是我国中央银行的货币政策自主。然而本文将利用Mendel-Fleming和Mendel-Fleming-Dombusch两个模型去分析，得出即使在国际资本完全不自由流动下的固定汇率政策以及在国际资本的完全自由流动情况下的浮动汇率政策都无法完全得以实现，从而理清了我国人民币汇率制度选择时依赖于中央银行货币政策自主的模糊认识。

Talking about China's Current Choices of RMB Exchange Rate System from Tridemma

Tridemma as classic criterion in the choices of exchange rate system has been clung to for long time by academics.And it is the same for China as China's choices for current RMB exchange rate system based on this criterion. It argues that the main criterion for the choices of RMB exchange rate system is due to autonomy of monetary policy for central bank of China,but in this presentation,it will analyze and conclude that the autonomy of monetary police can't be assured through the models of Mendel-Fleming and Mendel-Fleming-Dornbusch under the circumstances of fixed exchange rate policy based on complete non-freedom of international capital flow and floating exchange rate policy based on complete freedom of international capital flow respectively. And finally some obscure recognitions are made to clarify China's choice of RMB exchange rate system due to dependence on autonomy of monetary policy for China's central bank.