| Abstract: | This article applies modern Bayesian roll call analysis to estimatelegislators' support for minority-favored policies, and to determinethe likely impact of competing redistricting plans on the substantiverepresentation of minority interests. We first provide a theoryof districting and policy outcomes that points to the importanceof coalition building in advancing minority policy concernsand motivates our estimation techniques. We then apply thismethodology to the redistricting of the South Carolina StateSenate following the 1990 census. We show that this redistrictingled to more minorities being elected to office but less substantiverepresentation. |
