Modelling the Risks Associated with the Increased Importation of Fresh Produce from Emerging Supply Sources Outside the EU to the UK |
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Authors: | Paul Mwebaze Jim Monaghan Nicola Spence Alan MacLeod Martin Hare Brian Revell |
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Affiliation: | Paul Mwebaze (e‐mail: or for correspondence), Jim Monaghan and Martin Hare are with the Crop and Environment Research Centre, and Brian Revell is Director of International Policy, all at Harper Adams University College, Newport, Shropshire, TF10 8NB, UK. Nicola Spence and Alan MacLeod are both with the Food and Environment Research Agency, Sand Hutton, York, YO41 1LZ, UK, with which Paul Mwebaze also has an affiliation. The authors acknowledge Defra Seedcorn for funding the study. The authors thank the two anonymous referees and the JAE Editor for their very thorough review and constructive comments. The authors are solely responsible for the contents of this paper. |
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Abstract: | The risk of non‐indigenous plant pests entering the UK via international trade in fresh produce is increasing. The objective of this article is to identify existing and emerging supply sources for UK fresh produce importers and examine the extent to which they could provide invasion pathways. We tested the hypothesis that increased imports of fresh produce from new sources outside the European Union could increase the risks of non‐indigenous insect pests. We use a bio‐economic model approach in which the number of species arrivals is a function of the volume of imports, whereas the volume of imports itself is a function of gross domestic product, relative import prices and seasonality. The study has identified clear trends, which show import volumes of fresh produce and species detections increasing from new supply sources. If this trend continues in the future, then the UK inspection agency should expect to confront species from new suppliers in much greater numbers, given that import volumes of fresh produce are income elastic. |
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Keywords: | Cost‐effectiveness analysis costs inspections pathways of pest entry quarantine pests trade Q17 Q18 Q57 |
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