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Fundamentals, the exchange rate and prospects for the current and future EU enlargements: evidence from Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania and Turkey |
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| Authors: | Jesús Crespo Cuaresma Jarko Fidrmuc Maria Antoinette Silgoner | ||
| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, University of Innsbruck, Universit?tstrasse 15, 6020, Innsbruck, Austria 2. Department of Economics, University of Munich, 80539, Munich, Germany 3. CESifo and Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Comenius University, Bratislava, Slovakia 4. Foreign Research Division, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), Otto-Wagner-Platz 3, POB 61, 1011, Vienna, Austria |
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| Abstract: | We analyze the link between macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rate dynamics in two new and two potential EU member states:
Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Turkey. Given the different institutional settings of the exchange rate market in the countries
of interest, we follow two different modelling strategies. For Romania and Turkey, we evaluate possible exchange rate misalignments
based on a monetary model of exchange rate determination. In the case of Bulgaria and Croatia, with currency board and narrow-band
peg arrangements against the euro, we discuss possible exit strategies and quantitatively assess the effects of the peg arrangements
by means of simulation.
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| Keywords: | Exchange rate Macroeconomic fundamentals Transition economies | ||
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