Modeling Energy and Development: An Evaluation of Models and Concepts |
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| Authors: | Bas van Ruijven, Frauke Urban, Ren M.J. Benders, Henri C. Moll, Jeroen P. van der Sluijs, Bert de Vries,Detlef P. van Vuuren |
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| Affiliation: | aUtrecht University, The Netherlands;bUniversity of Groningen, The Netherlands;cPBL—Netherlands Environment Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, The Netherlands |
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| Abstract: | Most global energy models are developed by institutes from developed countries, focusing primarily on issues that are important in industrialized countries. Evaluation of the results for Asia of the IPCC/SRES models shows that broad concepts of energy and development, the energy ladder and the environmental Kuznets curve, can be observed in the results of the models. However, improvements can be made in modeling the issues that underlie these concepts, like traditional fuels, electrification, economic structural change, income distribution, and informal economies. Given the rapidly growing importance of energy trajectories of developing countries for global sustainability, the challenge for the future is to develop energy models that include all these aspects of energy and development. |
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| Keywords: | developing countries Asia energy modeling IPCC/SRES models |
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