发展农业生产性服务业会缩小城乡居民收入差距吗？——基于空间溢出和门槛特征的实证检验

城乡居民收入差距的扩大是我国城乡发展不平衡的主要表现之一，发展农业生产性服务业会促进农业现代化并提高农村经济运行效率，进而有利于提高农村居民相对收入水平和缩小城乡居民收入差距。基于我国2003—2017年30个省级区域的面板数据，采用空间计量模型和面板门槛模型分析农业生产性服务业发展水平对城乡居民收入差距的影响，结果表明：农业生产性服务业发展不仅有利于缩小本地区的城乡居民收入差距，还对周边地区存在显著的空间溢出效应；同时，随着城镇化水平的不断提高，农业生产性服务业发展对城乡收入差距的作用由促进转变为抑制，且抑制作用逐渐增大。因此，应积极发展农业生产性服务业，并促进区域合作和交流；同时，农业生产性服务业的发展要与各地区农业生产的现实需求相结合。

Can Agricultural Productive Service Industry Development Narrow the Urban-Rural Income Gap: An Empirical Analysis Based on Spatial Spillover and Threshold Characteristics

The enlargement of urban-rural residents income gap is one of the main expressions of the unbalanced urban-rural development, the development of agricultural productive service industry can boost agricultural modernization and promote rural economic operation efficiency and further is conducive to promoting the relative income level of rural residents and narrowing the urban and rural resident income gap. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and the municipalities of China from 2003 to 2017, this paper uses the spatial measurement model and the panel threshold model to analyze the impact of agricultural production service industry on urban-rural resident income gap. The results show that the development of agricultural productive service industry not only significantly reduces the income gap between urban and rural areas, but also has obvious spatial spillover effects on surrounding areas. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the level of urbanization, the impact of agricultural productive service industry on the urban-rural income gap has changed from promotion to inhibition and the inhibition effect gradually becomes larger.Thus, China should actively develop agricultural productive service industry and boost regional cooperation and communication, meanwhile, the development of agricultural productive service industry should combine the real demand of each regional agricultural production.