生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型,进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人口的福利水平。这意味着,如果自愿进行生育,全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策,如果与生育政策调整同时进行,可以增加社会资源,补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占,但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会资源增量须用于生育支持,降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企业的社会生产率。政策启示在于,尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施,特别是生育支持性政策。

Fertility, Labor Welfare and Mechanism Design

Establishing a dynamic optimization model for family decision-making, we carry outsimulations and find that, under the non-supporting policies, the welfare of the workingpopulation will be reduced if the family fertility according to the policy. This means that if thefamily voluntarily choose fertility, the people under the comprehensive two-child policy may notrespond effectively to the policy. In order to implement fertility goals, the government needs tointroduce supporting measures to compensate for the loss of welfare of the labor force causedby fertility. Further simulations found that the policy of transitioning the pension system andreducing the cost of childbirth, if accompanied by the adjustment of the fertility policy, canincrease social resources and compensate for the welfare loss of the working population.However, the key to the success of fertility effect of the policy is that the increase in socialresources due to the transition needs to be used for fertility support, and the reduction of thecost of fertility is to increase the productivity of fertility. The policy enlightenment is that, as soonas possible, we will introduce supporting policies, especially maternity support policies.