高速铁路建设时机：基于我国城市面板数据的计量分析

高速铁路建设时机影响运输资源配置效率与机会成本,也会影响区域社会经济发展.本文从建设时机影响机制入手,建立了由城市经济属性、城市社会属性与城市区位属性等的综合触发时机分析框架.以高速铁路有无作为因变量,运用触发机制模型分析高速铁路建设时机.实证结果显示,城市经济属性是高速铁路项目建设的主要影响因素,其中,可支配收入水平每提升1％,高速铁路建设触发概率会提高0.9％以上;城市的市场潜力或第三产业区位熵每提升1％,高速铁路建设触发概率会提高0.8％左右.当人均可支配收入达到8万元时,东中西部均可有效触发高速铁路建设.社会属性与区位属性并不能单因素引致高速铁路的触发机制.

Optimal Timing of High-speed Railway Construction: Econometric Analysis Based on City Panel Data of China

The timing of high-speed railway construction affects the allocation efficiency and opportunity cost of transportation resources, as well as regional socio-economic development. Starting from the construction timing influence mechanism, a comprehensive trigger timing analysis framework consisting of city economic attributes, social attributes, and location attributes is established. With with-or-without HSR as the dependent variable, the construction possibility is measured accordingly. The empirical results show that, the city economic characteristics are the primary influencing factors for high-speed railway construction, of which, an average 1% increase in disposable income will lead to more than 0.9% increase in possibility of the provision of high-speed railways, and an average 1% increase in urban market potential or the tertiary industry location entropy will lead to 0.8% increase in possibility of the provision of high-speed railways. Quantitatively speaking, RMB80,000 per capita disposable income is the threshold for the construction of HSR nationwide. Social and location attributes alone cannot trigger high-speed railway construction if other variables are kept constant.