河北省国民经济主要指标关系分析及“十二五”预测

"十二五"时期是河北省经济社会转型的重要时期,通过对"十二五"时期国内外经济形势变化及GDP相关影响因素分析可知,"十二五"时期河北省将处于工业化加速发展阶段,传统的投资拉动型经济增长模式将有所改观,未来消费和投资拉动GDP增长的差距将逐年缩小,河北省的GDP增长率的峰值将在2013年左右出现。但这一时期资源与环境的矛盾更为突出,节能减排压力加大。因此,要保持"十五"时期和"十一五"前四年的GDP的高增长率是比较困难的。

Analysis of the Relationship between the Major Indicators of National Economy in Hebei Province and the Forecast in the Twelfth Five-year Plan

The twelfth five-year plan is the important period for the social economic transition in Hebei Province.The analysis of the economic situation in and outside China and of the factors affecting GDP shows that in the twelfth five-year plan, Hebei will see the accelerating industrialization and the traditional investment-fuelled economic growth will be replaced.The role of consumption and investment in promoting GDP growth will become equalized.The GOP growth rate will reach the peak in about 2013,with the intense pressure from resources and environment and from energy saving and discharge reduction.Therefore it is rather difficult to maintain the high growth rate in the tenth and eleventh five-year plan.