大保护背景下长江经济带和黄河流域水安全评价及障碍因素分析

应用突变级数模型、Dagum基尼系数以及障碍诊断模型对长江经济带和黄河流域2009—2019年水安全状况进行了综合评估,通过对比分析探究了其空间差异与障碍因素。结果显示:在考察期内长江经济带水安全等级由较不安全转向较安全,而黄河流域一直处于不安全状态；从空间差异来看,相较于黄河流域,整体上长江经济带水安全综合指数地区分布更为协同,超变密度贡献是长江经济带水安全综合指数地区差异的主要来源,而区域间差异是黄河流域地区差异的主要来源；两大区域水安全问题各有短板,长江经济带主要是受到压力系统的阻碍,而黄河流域主是受到响应系统、状态系统和影响系统的三重阻碍;提出加强水资源科学配置、提升水资源节约集约利用、完善水土流失综合治理等政策建议。

Water security evaluation and obstacle factor analysis of two major regions in China under the background of large-scale protection

In this paper, the catastrophe progression model, the Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition method, and the obstacle diagnosis model are used to comprehensively evaluate the water security status of the Long Economic Belt and the Yellow River Basin from 2009 to 2019, and further explore their spatial differences and obstacles through comparative analysis. factor. The results show that:during the investigation period, the water safety level of the Yangtze River Economic Belt has changed from less safe to safer, while the Yellow River Basin has been in an unsafe state; from the perspective of spatial differences, compared with the Yellow River Basin, the overall water safety of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is comprehensive. The regional distribution of the index is more coordinated, and the contribution of hypervariable density is the main source of regional differences in the comprehensive index of water security in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, while the inter-regional differences are the main source of regional differences in the Yellow River Basin. The economic belt is mainly hindered by the pressure system, while the Yellow River Basin is mainly hindered by the response system, the state system and the influence system. Based on this, policy suggestions are put forward to strengthen the scientific allocation of water resources, improve the economical and intensive use of water resources, and improve the comprehensive management of soil erosion.