Trade adjustment policies and income distribution in three archetype developing economies |
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Authors: | Jaime de Melo Sherman Robinson |
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Affiliation: | The World Bank, Washington, DC 20433, USA |
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Abstract: | This paper explores quantitatively the macroeconomic and distributional impacts on non-oil producing, semi-industrial developing countries of external shocks originating in the world economy —in particular, rising costs of imports and shrinking export markets. The empirical analysis is done with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The effects of the same external shock are modelled for three different archetype economies: a primary exporter, a manufacturing exporter, and a closed economy. Three different policy-adjustment regimes are considered: devaluation, premium rationing of imports (import licenses), and premium rationing in an environment with a fixed real wage for unskilled labor. By making simple assumptions about the way socioeconomic groups operate to influence decision-making, the paper also examines how the struggle between the gainers and losers is likely to affect the policy regime to be chosen. |
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