江苏造纸业经济增长与环境污染关系的实证分析

文章基于EKC(Environmental Kuznets Curve)计量模型,运用"十五"以来江苏省纸和纸板产量以及造纸业工业废水排放量、工业废气排放量、工业源SO2排放量、工业烟(粉)尘排放量和CO2排放量等特征污染物排放数据,对江苏造纸业经济增长与环境污染之间的关系进行了实证分析。结果表明:江苏造纸业主要特征污染物排放量随着纸和纸板产量的增加呈现出"N"型的曲折波动。究其原因,"十一五"以来快速增长的产业规模及其能耗总量,是推动江苏造纸业污染物排放重拾升势的主要原因。因此,优化能源结构、提高能源效率,加大对能耗和特征污染物排放的总量控制,以及加快绿色新产品开发等,将是促进江苏造纸业经济与环境协调发展的可行途径。

An Empirical Analysis on the Relationship between the Development of Paper Industry and Environmental Pollution in Jiangsu Province

Based on the econometrics model of EKC （Environmental Kuznets Curve）,the paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between the development of paper industry and environmental pollution by using the data of paper and paper-board output and the emissions of main pollutants,such as industrial waste water,exhaust emission,SO2 emission,industri-al smoke dust and CO2 emission and so on,in Jiangsu Province since the tenth five-year plan period. The results show that the emissions of main pollutants of paper industry present the fluctuations of“N”type curve with the increase of paper and paper-board output. The main reason is that the rapid growth of industry scale and its total energy consumption during the eleventh five-year plan period results in the emissions of pollutants of paper industry in the province. Therefore, it will be a workable way for the province to promote the coordinated development of paper industry and environmental protection by optimizing ener-gy structure, improving energy efficiency, increasing total amount control of energy consumption and the emissions of main pollutants,and accelerating the development of new green products,etc.