基于可靠性计算的编组站车流预估方法研究

编组站阶段计划作为编组站作业计划的核心,对编组站高效完成运输生产任务具有重要作用。然而编组站阶段计划的编制通常受限于到达车流的时间不确定性和车流信息的不准确性,为提高自动编制阶段计划的准确性,研究一种依据车流实际确报信息对预报信息进行准确性评价、并且根据站内车流和带有准确性评价的到达车流进行车流自动推算的方法。在量化车流可靠性参数评估和列车平均运行时间评估的基础上构建模型,并提出相应的算法,随着系统运行过程中车流信息的不断积累和可靠性评价参数的动态更新,通过模拟调度人员对车流分配的思考过程实现到发车流的自动推算和分配。该方法可以有效提升车流推算的准确程度,提高自动编制的阶段计划的可用性。

Research on Traffic Flow Forecast Method for Reliability Calculation of Marshalling Station

As the core of an operation plan of a marshalling station,a stage plan plays an important role in the efficient completion of transportation and production tasks of the marshalling station.However,in the actual operation process,the preparation of a stage plan is limited by the uncertain arrival time of the traffic flow and the inaccurate traffic flow information.To improve the accuracy of the automatic preparation of a stage plan,this paper proposed a method for evaluating the accuracy of the traffic flow forecast according to the actual arrival information of the traffic flow and for automatically estimating the traffic flow on the basis of the traffic flow in the station and the arriving traffic flow with accuracy evaluation.Specifically,a model was built by quantifying the evaluation of traffic flow reliability parameters and average running time of trains,and a corresponding algorithm was put forward.With the continuous accumulation of traffic flow information and the dynamic update of reliability evaluation parameters during the operation of the system,the automatic calculation and distribution of the arrival and departure flow can be realized by simulating the thinking process of dispatchers on the distribution of traffic flow.This method can effectively improve the accuracy of traffic flow calculation and the availability of an automatic stage plan.