集聚与中国城市经济韧性

近年来中国经济增速有所下降,但各个城市在经济下行压力下的表现并不相同,本文从人口集聚的视角研究城市经济韧性。首先利用空间均衡模型分析集聚如何影响生产率进而作用于城市经济韧性,在此基础上建立长差分模型识别集聚和城市韧性的关系。研究发现:集聚不但有助于提高城市抗冲击的能力,也能够提升城市经济恢复的能力以及冲击后状态转变的能力;与经济下行时期相比,经济调整时期集聚与城市韧性的关系更为密切;市场需求效应、高技能劳动力的流入及知识溢出是集聚影响城市韧性的主要途径;集聚效应存在空间异质性,集聚对全国总体经济韧性有明显影响。本文研究表明,促进人口集聚是应对经济下行压力、增强城市韧性的有效举措。

Agglomeration and Urban Economic Resilience in China

In recent years,the economic growth rate in China has been declining,even though the performance of its different cities varies under economic slowdown pressure.This paper explores this aspect within the context of population agglomeration and urban economic resilience.It applies a spatial equilibrium model to analyse how agglomeration affects productivity and urban economic resilience and uses a long-differences model to identify the relationship between agglomeration and urban resilience.The main finding of the study is that agglomeration not only helps improve urban capacity when it comes to withstanding shocks,but also enhances it in terms of economic recovery and change of state towards recovery after resisting a shock.In contrast to economic slowdown,agglomeration has a closer relationship with urban resilience during the economic adjustment period.The market demand effect,the influx of highly skilled labour and the knowledge spillover constitute the key mechanisms for agglomeration to affect urban resilience.This paper also provides additional evidence that there is considerable spatial variation in the agglomeration effect and that the agglomeration impact on overall economic resilience is significant.As a conclusion,it is inferred that the population agglomeration promotion in cities is an effective measure in coping with the economic slowdown pressure and enhancing urban resilience.