破解地方金融机构支持县域经济发展之谜

本文将农信社改制视作一个准自然实验,利用渐进性DID方法探讨了其对县域经济发展的影响。研究发现,农信社改制促进了县域经济发展,但先改为农合行再改为农商行的改革路径和县域金融市场的结构性竞争会弱化这一促进作用。异质效应分析发现,市场潜能和非农产业比重越高,农信社改制对县域经济发展的促进作用越明显。作用机制分析发现,虽然农信社改制没有显著加剧县域资金外流,但资金外流会弱化其对县域经济发展的促进作用;农信社改制对第二产业的促进作用要大于第一产业,但改制后,农信社加强了对第一产业的促进作用。本文为深化农信社改革、平衡激励机制和社会责任、完善县域要素市场、建立合作机制提供了政策启示。

How Local Financial Institutions Support County Economy

Using the reform of rural credit cooperatives(RCCs)as a quasi-natural experiment,we estimate the impact of the RCCs’reform on county economy using the method of time-varying difference-in-differences(DID).The study finds that the RCCs’reform improves county economy,but the reform path from RCCs to rural cooperative banks and then to rural commercial banks and the structural competition of the financial market could weaken RCCs’positive effect on county economy.The positive impact of RCCs on county economy shows individual heterogeneity,especially in the regions with a higher proportion of material capital and nonagricultural business.Analysis of capital outflow shows that county-level capital outflow is not affected by RCCs’reform,and it could weaken the RCCs’positive effect on county economy.Analysis of industrial flow shows that the RCCs’average positive effect on the secondary sector and output value of large-scale industrial enterprises is higher than on the primary sector.Nevertheless,RCCs strengthen their positive impact on the primary sector after their reform.The study provides important policy implications for deepening RCCs’reform,balancing the incentive mechanism and social responsibility,enhancing the county-level factor market and establishing a cooperative mechanism.