R and D tactics: applications of RPD decision analysis

Abstract: The application of RPD decision analysis to R & D tactics is discussed and the role of the technique as an aid to self-consistent decision making is enaphasized. RPD decision analysis is used to define limits to its own cost effectiveness.
Two example problems are analysed in detail. Simple priority ratings are defined for two special cases: the sequence of independent tests all of which must succeed, and the sequence of independent problem solving attempts, any of which may succeed. The compromise between project duration and project cost is analysed in terms of time dependence of the value of success.
The discrimination study is defined as an investigation which aims to provide information for an improved assessment of project success probability.
It is shown that such a study is never worth more than one quarter of the total expected benefits of the project.