政策引导、贫困程度与农户林业规模经营行为

基于1273户农户调研数据,通过Logistic回归模型厘清政策引导因素和贫困程度对农户林业规模经营意愿、行为及其偏差的影响,并构建“无意愿无行为”“有意愿有行为”和“有意愿无行为”“有意愿有行为”这2个模型分析林业规模经营从意愿向行为转化的制约因素。研究结果表明:林业政策对农户林业规模经营行为的影响程度更显著,贫困程度只在区域宏观层面对农户林业规模经营行为有影响。其中,是否获得森林抚育补贴、林业收入所占比例和地区经济发展水平等因素均能显著促使农户林业规模经营意愿向行为转化。因此,建议优化采伐限额制度,加大对林农的资金补贴力度,特别是经济欠发达地区;提供非农就业的安置和引导,为农民提供就业指导和帮扶;加强林业经营体系建设,推进林业适度规模经营。

Policy Guidance,Poverty Level and Farmers' Forestry Scale Management Behaviors

⑴ Background——It is mentioned that we should develop various forms of scale management in the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China.Forestry belongs to the big category of Agriculture,moderate scale management of the forestry is also very important.As the forerunner of the behaviors,the intentions of farmers scale management often plays a guiding role in the relevant behaviors of farmers.However,in real life,there is often a discrepancy between the intentions and behaviors of farmers,that is,farmers have the intentions to conduct large-scale forestry operation but do not have that kind of behaviors.⑵ Methods——Based on the field survey data of 1,273 households in Zhejiang,Fujian,Jiangxi,Hunan and Guizhou Provinces,Logistic regression model is used to study the impact on the intentions and behaviors of farmers in large-scale forestry operation and show the difference between guiding factors of policies and poverty level on the impact of farmers' intentions and behaviors on the scale operation of forestry.The samples of "behaviors with intentions" and two reference data "intention without behaviors"and "without behaviors or intentions"are distinguished,two models are established to study the factors that restricting operation from intention to behavior.⑶ Results——⑴Whether it is easy to apply for the logging index and whether to obtain afforestation subsidy in the guidance of forestry policy can promote the form of farmers' intention of forestry operation scale.⑵Whether it is easy to apply for the logging index and whether to obtain forest tending subsidies in the guidance of forestry policy significantly promote farmers' forestry scale operation behavior and transformation forestry scale operation intention to behavior,and has the obvious difference in different impoverished area⑶whether to obtain afforestation subsidy become the factor of farmers' intention of forestry operation scale and difference of two control models,However,there is some deviation from the expectation in the aspects of influencing the operation behavior and the intention transformation behavior,it shows that the policy of afforestation subsidy plays a very limited role in encouraging farmers to conduct large-scale forestry operations.⑷The age of the household,the proportion of forestry income and forest area in control variable is the common influencing factor in the model of the scale operation intention behavior of farmers and their intention transformation behavior,but the higher education level of the household can improve the management intention and promote the transformation intention to behavior.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Firstly,the development of forestry management systems should be availably strengthened and scaled forestry operations should be appropriately promoted.Besides,the government should provide support for large-scale forestry management to protect the rights and interests of these households engaged in forestry and raise the remuneration for forestry.At the same time,it is important to provide career placement and technology guidance for non-agricultural employment,as well as employment guidance and assistance to farmers in the poor.Finally,logging quota system should be optimized.In addition,forestry departments should strengthen the protection of forests at a young age,and appropriately open the logging quota of mature forests.