林地经营权流转行为羊群效应研究

基于羊群行为理论,依据在福建省林地经营权流转推广力度较强的4个县开展调研获得的344份问卷调查数据,采用Binary Logistic方法分析林农林地经营权流转行为中的羊群效应。结果表明:羊群效应对林农林地经营权流转行为具有正向影响;林地流转政策信息可得性正向影响林农林地经营权流转行为;林地流转政策信息可得性在羊群效应对林农林地经营权流转行为影响中具有负向调节作用。因此,要增强林地流转政策信息可得性,实现林地资源效益的最大化;充分利用林地经营权流转中的羊群效应,确保流转政策得以稳步实施;提高林农的信息辨别能力,减少其流转决策的盲目性。

Study on Herding Effect in the Transfer Behavior of Forest Land Management Right

⑴ Background——Speeding up the transfer of forest land management rights is conducive to improving economic benefits.However,due to the asymmetric information of the circulation policy,there are still many problems,such as low willingness to circulate forest land management right.⑵ Methods——Four counties with strong promotion and transfer of forest land management rights in Fujian Province are selected as sites for field surveys,and 344 valid samples are collected.Taking 14 control variables and 3 core explanatory variables and their binary and ternary interaction terms as independent variables,the herd phenomenon in forest land management right transfer was analyzed by using binary logistic model.⑶ Results——Firstly,age(-0.062),main planting categories(-0.636),and old-age security(-0.198)all have a negative impact on the transfer of forest land management rights.While education level(0.070)and site conditions(0.268)have a positive impact on the transfer of forest land management rights.Secondly,the number of relatives and friends participating in the circulation(0.169),the number of other forest farmers participating in the circulation(0.100),the interaction item of the number of relatives and friends participating in the circulation and other forest farmers participating in the circulation(0.125),and the availability of forest land circulation policy information(0.228)have a positive impact on the behavior of forest land management right circulation.Finally,the availability of forest land transfer policy information related to the number of relatives and friends participating in the circulation(-0.107),the number of other forest farmers participating in the circulation(-0.135),and the interaction between the number of relatives and friends participating in the circulation and the number of other forest farmers participating in the circulation(-0.091)all play a negative regulatory role in the circulation of forest land management right.Therefore,the herd effect and the availability of forest land transfer policy information positively affect the transfer of forest land management rights,while the availability of forest land transfer policy information negatively regulates the impact of the herd effect on forest land management rights transfer.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——The transfer of forest land management rights promotes the adjustment and optimization of forestry property rights structure.As the owner of forest land management rights,the circulation behavior of forest farmers affects the specific effect of the circulation of forest land management right.Therefore,the following suggestions are put forward:①Reduce the time and money spent by forest farmers in obtaining information will accelerate the transfer of forest land management rights and realize the benefits of forest land resources maximize.②Forest farmers are more inclined to take the circulation behavior of relatives,friends and other forest farmers as the basis for decision-making under the circumstances of insufficient information on the circulation policy,which is conducive to promoting the implementation of the circulation policy by making full use of the herd effect in the transfer of forest land management rights.③Because the decision-making made by forest farmers according to the circulation behavior of their relatives and friends and other forest farmers is not based on their own forest situation,improving their ability to identify information is conducive to preventing blind decision-making.