园林绿化项目风险网络模型构建与风险控制

应用社会网络方法从项目风险因素与项目利益相关主体两个方面出发对园林绿化项目风险控制问题进行整体研究。结果表明:主要核心风险因素的利益相关主体为承包商、供应商和设计方;核心风险因素分别属于市场风险、苗木成活风险和工期进度风险,其中苗木成活率是完成园林绿化项目的关键因素;通过对核心风险因素和核心风险关系的控制,可以减弱风险网络模型的紧密程度,降低项目的风险,增加项目成功的可能性。因此,建议承包商和供应商要对成本进行控制;设计方应完善设计理念,因地制宜选择苗木;业主要合理制定城市林业方案。

Construction of Risk Network Model and Risk Control for Landscaping Projects

⑴Background——In urban forestry,the projects of landscaping are the key project of urban forestry,but in landscaping projects,here are risks in each project,and different risk factors interact among themselves due to the role of stakeholders.⑵Methods——Collected 45 pieces of data and obtained 12 risk factors on the research results of risk management of landscaping projects from 2010 to 2018.Collected 50 pieces of data on the survival risks of seedlings and construction schedule risks and obtained 9 risks factor from 5 landscaping projects of Beijing Forestry Science and Technology Corporation.There are 23 risk factors are finally acquired,and a landscape project risk network model was constructed based on the method of social network analysis.⑶Results——These risk factors include the contractor's cost control ability,the completion of the basic supporting project,the construction team's technology,the supplier's cost control ability,the distance from the seedling base to the construction site,and the matching of the seedling base and the construction site environmental conditions.The stakeholders with high intermediate centrality are contractors,suppliers and designers.These risk factors are respectively from market risk,seedling survival risk and schedule risk,which are all related to seedling survival rate,which is the key factor in the completion of landscaping projects.After risk control,the central potential decreased from 25.62%to 1.26%.It can be seen in the figure that measures are taken to simplify the risk network model.Through the visual comparison of the risk netizens'models before and after risk control,the closeness between the risk factors is reduced.Through the comparison of the effect before and after the risk control of the risk network diagram of the landscaping project,the reduction of the density of the network is reflected by the change of the network density,the aggregation coefficient and the potential of the middle center.After the risk control,the potential of the middle center decreased from 25.62%to 1.26%,indicating that the risk of the landscaping project was effectively reduced after the risk factors were controlled.The results show that the whole risk control is effective,and the strategies proposed for the core risk factors can effectively reduce the risk of landscape projects.⑷Conclusions and Discussions——The main stakeholders of core risk factors are contractors,suppliers and designers,which are respectively from market risk,seedling survival risk and schedule risk.And the control of the influence relationship between the core risk and the core risk factors effectively weakens the closeness of the risk network model and reduces the risk of the landscaping project.Therefore,it is suggested that contractors and suppliers should control the cost;the designers should improve the design concept that combined the design with the site.Furthermore,the effect of risk control in landscape project management is tested,and it is concluded that the risk can be reduced by management and the performance of stakeholders improved.Next,some suggestions for urban forestry are that the development of urban forestry needs to select seedlings according to local conditions for the beauty of urban forestry,increasing the survival rate of seedlings,and reducing the maintenance cost of seedlings.At the same time,according to urban forestry plans are formulated according to local conditions to ensure the effectiveness of design,control the cost of urban forestry projects,and reduce the risk of urban forestry.On the basis of theoretical hypothesis,this paper establishes risk network model,introduces simulation technology to evaluate risk control,and explains empirical research for future research.