中国茶叶出口的影响因素及潜力分析

本文利用联合国贸易数据库数据,应用贸易引力模型,实证研究了1992—2007年影响中国茶叶出口贸易的主要因素。结果表明,茶叶进口国的GDP、中国茶产业的发展、中国和贸易伙伴国的双边真实汇率、贸易伙伴国的农药残留最大限量标准及与中国间距离是影响中国茶叶出口的主要因素,中国茶叶仍有出口到发达国家(欧盟、美国和日本等)的市场潜力。最后,提出建立与国际接轨的农药残留限量标准、推广应用HACCP体系、优化茶叶出口市场结构等对策建议,以扩大中国茶叶出口。

Analysis on Influencement Factors and Potential of China's Tea Export

Based on the data obtained from UN Comtrade database,and by the gravity model,this paper analyzes empirically the influencement factors of China＇s tea export during 1992-2007.The results show that China＇s tea export is affected by GDP of importing country,the development of China＇s tea industry,the real exchange rate and the distance between China and its trading partners,the Maximum Residue Limit（MRL） standard of China＇s trading partners,and there is market potential of China＇s tea export in developed countries,such as EU,U.S.,Japan and so on.Finally,it puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for promoting China＇s tea export,such as establishing internationized MRL standard of China,and extending the application of Hazard Analysis and Critical Control Point（HACCP） in China＇ tea industry,and optimizing the market structure,etc.