The exchange rate system and macroeconomic fluctuations in Sub-Saharan Africa |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, McElhaney Hall, Room 213E, Indiana University of Pennsylvania, Indiana, PA 15705, United States;2. Department of Economics, 408 SSB, University of Missouri at St. Louis, One University Blvd., St. Louis, MO 63121, United States;1. Borsa Istanbul, Research & Business Development Department, Resitpasa Mahallesi, Tuncay Artun Caddesi, 34467, Emirgan, Istanbul, Turkey;2. Borsa Istanbul, Equity Market Department, Resitpasa Mahallesi, Tuncay Artun Caddesi, 34467, Emirgan, Istanbul, Turkey;3. The Grand National Assembly of Turkey, 06543, Bakanl?klar, Ankara, Turkey;1. Banco de la República, Colombia;2. University of Melbourne, Australia;1. TEDDY Network, Pavia 27100, Italy;2. Espace Ethique PACA-Corse, AP-HM, Marseille, France;3. Committee on Bioethics, Council of Europe, Strasbourg, France;4. Steering Committee for the Rights of the Child, Council of Europe, Strasbourg, France |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries with particular attention to the exchange rate system. We use a structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) model with limited capital mobility and long run restrictions to identify the shocks. Supply and terms of trade shocks tend to dominate output movements in the CFA and non-CFA countries alike. However, terms of trade shocks tend to influence the CFA zone to a greater extent and there seems to be a higher influence of demand shocks on output and the real exchange rates in the non-CFA countries. |
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