The effects of El Niño on the mackerel purse-seine fishery harvests in Taiwan: An analysis integrating the barometric readings and sea surface temperature |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean Univ., Taiwan;2. Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean Univ., Taiwan;3. Department of Economics, Memorial Univ. of Newfoundland and Institute of Applied Economics, National Taiwan Ocean Univ., Taiwan;4. Overseas Fisheries Development Council, Taiwan;1. National Museum of Nature and Science, 4-1-1 Amakubo, Tsukuba, 305-0005, Japan;2. Research Institute for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 2-15 Natsushima-cho, Yokosuka, Kanagawa, 237-0061, Japan;3. National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;4. Geological Survey of Japan, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology, 1-1-1 Higashi, Tsukuba, 305-8567, Japan;5. Korea Maritime and Ocean University, 727 Taejong-ro, Yeongdo-Gu, Busan, 49112, South Korea;1. Fisheries Management and Oceanography division, Seikai National Fisheries Research Institute, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 1551-8, Taira-machi, Nagasaki-shi, Nagasaki, 851-2213, Japan;2. Sustainable Fisheries Group, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, 93106, United States;3. Research Center for Fisheries Management, National Research Institute of Fisheries Science, Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa, Yokohama, Kanagawa, 236-8648, Japan;1. Australian Rivers Institute, Griffith University, Nathan, Queensland 4111, Australia;2. ARC Centre for Mathematical and Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS) and the Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology (QUT), Brisbane, Queensland 4000, Australia;3. CSIRO Data61, Brisbane, Queensland 4001, Australia |
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| Abstract: | The harvest of mackerel purse-seine fishery in Taiwan fell sharply by 47.75% following the strong El Niño of 1997/1998. In this study, we try to incorporate El Niño barometric readings and sea surface temperature measurements into analysis for predicting the biomass. Using daily logbook records of the mackerel purse-seine fishery from 1982 to 1999, we identify the factors that influence the catch of mackerel purse-seine fishery in Taiwan. Based on an empirical model and the results of a fishing fleet cost survey, we estimate the average cost and the welfare loss associated with an El Niño. A time-series simulation shows that adding the El Niño barometric readings information improves the accuracy of biomass forecasts. It also shows that about 14 months after the strong El Niño has occurred, the biomass index is 13.2% lower and the number of fishing day is 10.4% higher. The estimated welfare loss of all mackerel purse-seine fleets during September to January in the year subsequent to the El Niño is about US$6 million. Policy implications of the study are also discussed. |
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