| 丹江口水库流域月尺度降雨与径流预报研究 |
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| 作者姓名： | 祝诗学 梁忠民 戴昌军 杨文发 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 河海大学 水文水资源学院,南京,210098;2. 长江水利委员会 水资源局,武汉,430010;3. 长江水利委员会 水文局,武汉,430010 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家重点基础研究发展计划( 973 计划, 2010CB9511) |
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| 摘 要： | 以汉江上游丹江口水库流域为研究区域,通过降雨-气象遥相关分析从74项大气环流因子中筛选出预报因子,建立月降雨量与预报因子间的多元线性回归模型,根据大气环流因子对月降雨量进行预报,并构建研究区域的SWAT模型,以预报的月降雨量作为模型输入,实现月径流量的预报。以2012年逐月降雨及径流为例,模型对降雨和径流预报的合格率均约为83%,预报效果较好。研究表明,根据降雨量-大气环流因子的统计相关关系预报月降雨,并结合水文模型进行径流预报,对研究区域具有一定的适用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 丹江口流域 降雨预报 径流预报 多元线性回归模型 SWAT模型 |
Study on monthly rainfall and runoff prediction in Danjiangkou Basin |
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| Authors: | ZH U Shixue LIANG Zhongmin DAI Changjun YANG Wenfa |
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| Institution: | ( 1. College o f H y dr ology and Water Resources , H ohai Univer sity , N anj ing 210098, China; 2. B ur eau of Water Res our ces ,
Changj iang Water Resources Commiss io n, Wuhan 430010, China; 3. Bur eau of H y d ro logy ,
Changj iang Water Res our ces Commission , Wuhan 430010, China) |
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| Abstract: | In o rder to predict monthly rainfall in Danjiang kou basin of the upper H an River , w e selected predictor s fr om 74 atmos2
pheric circulatio n facto rs by analyzing corr elation o f rainfall and fact ors, and multiple linear reg ression mo del w as established by
which the monthly rainfall was predicted. SWAT model of the study area w as built to fo recast the monthly runoff by using
monthly rainfall fo recast values as the mo del input. The monthly r ainfall and runo ff of 2012 wer e for ecasted w ith passing r ate
bo th wer e abo ut 83 percent. It show s the metho d that monthly r ainfall predict ion based o n t he statist ical co rr elatio n of r ainfall
and atmospheric cir culation factor s, and r unoff pr ediction combined w ith hydrolog ical mo del, is applicable to the studied ar ea. |
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| Keywords: | Danjiangkou Basin rainfall predictio n runoff predictio n multiple linear r egr essio n model SWAT model |
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