耕地“非农化”的时空格局演变及其驱动因素研究 ——基于影响分析与组态分析的双重视角

研究目的：探究中国耕地“非农化”时空演变特征及其压力、状态与响应因素的多重并发影响和因果组态复杂机制。研究方法：基于多元线性回归模型、时空地理加权回归（GTWR)模型的影响分析和基于模糊集定性比较法（fsQCA)的组态分析。研究结果：（1)2004—2020年中国耕地“非农化”面积总体呈增长态势，不同地区、不同类型城市和不同单元分别表现出“东多西少”“阶梯递增”“中西扩散”特征。（2)社会经济驱动因素对耕地“非农化”的影响体现出明显时空异质效应，其中人口城镇化、土地城镇化和产业结构是普遍性的因素。（3)压力、状态与响应中单因素并不构成影响耕地“非农化”的必要条件，不同地区耕地“非农化”的实现是诸多因素构成的不同组态构型并发协同作用的结果，但在不同组态构型的核心因素和辅助因素会发生角色和地位的转换。研究结论：耕地“非农化”受经济、社会和资源配置等多重因素影响，地方政府在制定调控管理政策时需着眼于不同组态路径中压力、状态及响应多重条件的适配关系，加强城市建设占用耕地的空间规划管控。

Spatial-temporal Pattern Evolution of Cultivated Land Conversion and Its Driving Factors: A Twofold Perspectives of Impact Analysis and Configuration Analysis

The purpose of this study is to investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics of cultivated land conversion in China and its the multiple interactive effects and the complex influencing mechanism exerted by pressure, state and response (PSR) factors. The research methods included influence analysis based on multiple linear regression model and spatio-temporal geographically weighted regression model (GTWR) and configuration analysis based on fuzzy set qualitative comparison method (fsQCA). The results show that: 1) from 2004 to 2020, the overall cultivated land conversion area in China showed a fluctuating increasing characteristic, the cultivated land conversion was characterized by an increasing trend from the eastern to the western China, a gradually decreasing trend from small to large cities and spatial pattern diffused from eastern regions to mid-west regions. 2) The influence of socio-economic driving factors on the cultivated land conversion reflected obvious spatial and temporal heterogeneity, among which population urbanization, land urbanization and industrial structure were universal drivers. 3) The single factor of PSR does not constitute a necessary condition to influence cultivated land conversion. The synergistic effects of different factors configurations lead to cultivated land conversion in different regions, but the roles and positions of the key factors and auxiliary factors can change in different configurations. In conclusion, cultivated land conversion is mainly affected by the interaction and configuration influence of regional economic, social development and resource endowment. It is recommended that local government should focus on the adaptation relationship of multiple conditions of PSR in different configuration paths when formulating regulation and management policies, and strengthen the spatial planning control of cultivated land occupied by urban construction.