服务业增长、城市化与经济发展——改革开放后中国数据的经验研究

经济发展的实践表明,产业结构转变的高级阶段是现代服务业成为国民经济的主导.工业化推动了城市化,城市化引致生产要素向城市集聚,城市数量增加和规模的提升、非农人口比重的提高极大地刺激了服务业的需求,居民收入的增加和就业结构的转变最终促进了服务业的发展.本文建立多变量的计量模型,使用Johan-son协整、ECM、VAR、IRF和方差分解等现代经济计量方法对改革开放以来中国经济增长中的服务业进行经验研究,从经济发展和结构转变的角度考察了服务业的增长.

Service Sector Growth, Urbanization and Economic Development

The advanced stage of industrial structure transformation is characterized by modern service sector domination in the economy. Industrialization promotes urbanization which results in the concentration of production factors in urban areas. The increase of city numbers and scale, and the increasing proportion of non-farming population greatly stimulate service demand. Household income growth and employment structure change foster service development. This paper empirically researches China service sector since the reform and opening policy and examines service development from economic development and structural transformation perspectives with multivariate econometric models.