转型期城市旅游经济时空变异及其异质性模拟——以泛长三角地区为例

运用GIS技术结合探索性空间数据分析方法，选取2001年、2005年和2010年3个时间断面数据，探讨了转型时期泛长三角城市旅游经济空间集聚及异质性空间格局演化特征，并基于半变异函数进行了空间异质性格局的模拟。结果表明：泛长三角城市旅游经济空间集聚态势明显，人均入境旅游收入、人均旅游总收入及其增长空间格局集聚态势差异显著，以上海和南京为中心的集聚区表现异常凸显。同时，空间滞后模型检验发现，最小二乘法估计的F统计量均大于100，拟合优度在0．8以上，最小二乘法估计的残差通过1％检验．经济发展水平、交通发展程度对城市旅游经济发展起到了较大的促进作用，旅游经济中心的极核作用越来越显著。结构化梯度引起的关联效应呈现上升态势，控制旅游经济发展的全过程，结构性因素和随机性因素的综合作用，共同促进了旅游经济的整体提升，随着区域旅游合作机制的不断深入，异质性格局将呈现弱化态势。

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Urban Tourism Industry and Heterogeneous Simulation during a Transitional Period. A Pan-Yangtze River Delta Case Study

This paper uses geographic information system technology combined with exploratory spatial data analysis to study in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta in China. The paper selects data from three time periods, 2001, 2005 and 2010, and discusses urban tourism spatial agglomeration characteristics and heterogeneous spatial pattern evolution during the transitional period. A semivariogram heterogeneous spatial pattern simulation is produced. The results show that the spatial agglomeration of urban tourism in the Pan-Yangtze River Delta is significant. The spatial agglomeration pattern differs between the per capita domestic tourism income and the per capita total tourism income, while the spatial growth pattern in these sectors shows a large difference. Specifically, economic and transportation developments have significantly facilitated development of the urban tourism industry in the Shanghai and Nanjing agglomerative region, with both urban areas passing the 1% significance test. Tourism centers have a large polar nucleus, with structural and random factors jointly promoting tourism development. As regional tourism cooperation deepens, heterogeneous patterns will weaken. A spatial lag model test shows that the least squares estimation of the F statistic is greater than 100, the goodness of fit is more than 0.8 and residual through the 1% test. The level of economic development and the degree of transportation development both have a strong effect on promoting the urban tourism industry. The polar focus within the urban tourism industry has become increasingly significant. A simulation model examining the heterogeneity of the tourism industry shows that the Gauss model is the best fit and that the Pan-Yangtze River Delta urban tourism industry has good continuity. The base value is growing with structural factors taking an increasingly leading role. We are currently facing a critical tourism transformation period, hence discussions on the heterogeneity of urban tourism agglomeration economic space has an extremely important theoretical significance and has practical value for the effective grasp of spatial dependence and the border spillovers existing between tourism industry provincial units.