汇率、经济增长与流动性过剩——基于经济全球化的考察

改革开放以来我国经济社会发展发生了深刻变化。过去三十年世界经济格局也发生了深刻变化。经济全球化深化了世界各国的经济联系,也创造了一种不稳定的双赢模式。发展中国家和发达国家均在全球产业转移中获得了要素生产力递增的收益。要素生产率递增可能使采取固定汇率的货币经历从高估到低估的转变,全球产业转移支持了发展中国家广泛而持续地保持这一优势,并以经常性项目和资本项目间跨国补偿机制实现了全球经济不稳定的平衡,也创造了全球流动性过剩。

Exchange Rate, Economic Growth and Excess Liquidity: Observations on Economic Globalization

China is experiencing the miracle of development since it adopted the policy of opening to the outside 30 years ago. The pattern of world economy has also changed dramatically at the same time .Globalization is enhancing the relationship among countries, and making an unstable win-win model. Both developing countries and developed countries are getting the benefit of marginal return increase of factors. A fixed rate currency might be developed from overvalue to undervalue driven by the increase marginal return of factors, and the outsourcing model has spread to the whole world. The process of globalization, in which any developing country wishes to keep the advantage of undervalue currency to win larger share of world market, has created a system in which developing countries win the surplus of current item from developed countries, and developed countries should win surplus of capital item from developing countries, a large amount of free movement of capital in the whole world is creating the global over-liquidity.