企业内部运行的预测市场研究*--以西门子和惠普内部预测市场为例

预测市场作为一种新型预测方法，在国外受到了各方关注，而国内对于预测市场的研究相对薄弱。近年来国外许多企业纷纷开始构建内部预测市场平台，并且引起了学术界的广泛关注，但是国内还没有学者对企业内部预测市场进行深入研究。本文主要分析西门子和惠普内部预测市场机制设计进而探讨企业内部预测市场机制设计的核心问题，即对交易者、事件合约、交易机制、定价策略及激励机制的研究，并且通过西门子和惠普内部预测市场的预测结果证明了该机制设计的有效性与准确性。在未来的研究中将重点探讨信息披露机制对于企业内部预测市场预测结果的影响，并且进一步完善企业内部预测市场机制。

Research on Internal Prediction Market:Taking the Siemens and HP Internal Prediction Market as Examples

Prediction market has been widely explored in other countries,while there still is a lack of further research in China besides basic introduction. In recent years, many foreign companies have started to build internal prediction market platform, and this is widely concerned by academic circles. However, there are no scholar studying on the internal prediction market deeply in China.This article analyzes the core elements of the internal market mechanism through the Siemens and HP internal prediction market, which include traders, event contracts, trading mechanisms, pricing strategy and incentives. The results of the Siemens and HP internal prediction markets confirmed the validity of this mechanism as well as the precision of prediction market. The future study will focus on effect of information disclosure on internal prediction market and further improvement of internal prediction market.