Modeling tourism: A fully identified VECM approach |
| |
Authors: | Carl Byron Ting |
| |
Affiliation: | aDepartment of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, United States;bEvolution Capital Management, 2425 Olympic Blvd, Suite 120, Santa Monica, CA 90402, United States |
| |
Abstract: | System-based cointegration methods have become popular tools for economic analysis and forecasting. However, the identification of structural relationships is often problematic. Using a theory-directed sequential reduction method suggested by Hall, Henry and Greenslade [Hall, S. G., Henry, S., & Greenslade, J. (2002). On the identification of cointegrated systems in small samples: A modelling strategy with an application to UK wages and prices. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 26, 1517–1537], we estimate a vector error correction model of Hawaii tourism, where both demand and supply-side influences are important. We identify reasonable long-run equilibrium relationships, and Diebold–Mariano tests for forecast accuracy demonstrate satisfactory forecasting performance. |
| |
Keywords: | Cointegration Vector error correction model Identification Tourism demand and supply analysis Tourism forecasting Hawaii |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|