World Agricultural Trade Reform: Implications for Australia

In this paper we assess the implications of agricultural trade reform by GATT member countries. To do this, we link two general equilibrium models, a world food trade model and the ORANI model of the Australian economy. By treating the ORANI model as an integral part of the world model, we are able to focus on the implications for Australia of world agricultural trade reform.
The findings suggest that, if price distorting agricultural policies were removed by GATT member countries, world food commodity prices would rise, some by up to 30 per cent, and world food trade expand by about a third. Australia would be a major beneficiary of these international developments, the value of its agricultural exports rising by close to 15 per cent. In 1986, this would have meant for Australia additional export earnings of around SUS750 million, as well as more rapid economic growth.