| 可持续成长模型下的上市公司财务危机预警 |
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| 引用本文： | 王智宁,吴应宇,叶新凤. 可持续成长模型下的上市公司财务危机预警[J]. 经济管理, 2008, 0(Z1) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王智宁 吴应宇 叶新凤 |
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| 作者单位： | 东南大学经济管理学院;中国矿业大学管理学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部博士学科点专项科研基金项目“动态竞争环境下基于核心能力战略的企业集团危机预警系统研究”(20050286038) |
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| 摘 要： | 本文依据6种财务可持续成长模型提炼预警指标,基于2003～2007年我国A股市场新增ST公司样本及配对样本的前3年数据,对各模型的驱动因素进行综合预处理,分别得到ST前1～3年的预警指标体系。然后,建立预警模型进行回判和外推。结果表明,各种分析方法在ST前3年可获得较高的判断准确性;财务危机与可持续成长驱动指标之间存在着高度的非线性关系;可持续成长模型能够为开发标准化预警指标体系提供依据。
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| 关 键 词： | 可持续成长模型 多元判别 逻辑回归 神经网络 最小二乘支持向量机 |
Empirical Study of Finance Distress Prediction Based on Sustainable Growth Model |
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| WANG Zhi-ning WU Ying-yu YE Xin-feng. Empirical Study of Finance Distress Prediction Based on Sustainable Growth Model[J]. Economic Management, 2008, 0(Z1) |
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| Authors: | WANG Zhi-ning WU Ying-yu YE Xin-feng |
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| Affiliation: | WANG Zhi-ning~1 WU Ying-yu~1 YE Xin-feng~2(1.School of Economics , Management,Southeast University,Nanjing,Jiangsu,211189,China,2.Management school,China University of Mining & Technology,Xuzhou,221008,China) |
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| Abstract: | This paper introduces six sustainable growth models to abstract variables.After synthetical- ly pretreating variables to get the index systems before one to three years,this paper uses four dominating methods of multivariate discrimination,logistic regression,neural network and least squares support vec- tor machine to carry out empirical study for bankruptcy prediction.Result shows that these four methods have good classification abilities before three years and there exist great nonlinear relations betwee... |
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| Keywords: | sustainable growth model multivariate discrimination logistic regression neural network least squares support vector machine |
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