基于AR模型的存款利率水平实证研究

本文建立了通货膨胀率、储蓄存款、消费对存款实际利率长期影响的AR模型,并通过实证检验发现四大现象:实际利率与名义利率的巨大差别;通货膨胀率是影响实际利率的最重要因素;储蓄存款和实际利率存在异象;消费膨胀促进加息。建议制定利率水平应更加及时,加速利率市场化改革,利用利率工具来抑制流动性过剩与通货膨胀。

Empirical Research on Deposit Interest Rate with AR Model

This paper introduces the establishment of an AR model on the impact of inflation,deposit savings,consumption to deposit interest rate.The author finds the following 4 phenomena through an empirical experiment: the big difference between the real interest rate and the nominal interest rate;that inflation is the most important determinant for the real interest rate;the abnormal relationship between deposit savings and real interest rate;and that consumption expansion makes interest rate increase.The article suggests that interest rate should be adjusted on time,interest rate market reform should be accelerated,and interest rate policy instruments should be applied to restrain the "liquidity overload" and inflation.