基于MRCI的中国能源消费变动及驱动因素分析

如何减缓能源消费的过快增长是应对能源安全和气候变化的重要课题。通过对投入产出分析原理和无残差的完全结构分解法（MRCI）量化分析发现，产出规模效应和生产结构效应对中国能源消费增长起到主导作用，是主要驱动因素，而中国能源强度效应能有效抑制中国能源消费的增长；人口规模效应和人均生活能耗效应对中国能源消费增长的影响相对较小，但也有一定的促进作用。因此，依靠技术创新、提高能源使用效率，控制人口增长、引导居民向低能耗方向发展有利于减少中国能源消费水平。

Analysis of energy consumption in China and the driving factors based on MRCI

How to slow down the excessive growth of energy consumption is an important issue to deal with energy security and climate change. The complete structure without residual on the input output analysis theory and the decomposition method （MRCI） quantitative analysis, Scale effect and structure effect on the production of Chinese energy consumption growth will play a leading role is the main driving factor, the effect Chinese energy intensity can effectively inhibit the growth of energy consumption China; The influence of population size effect and per capita energy consumption effect on Chinese energy consumption growth is relatively small, but also have a certain role in promoting. Therefore, rely on technological innovation, improve energy efficiency, control population growth, to guide residents to low power consumption direction to reduce the energy consumption level China.