储蓄率、经常项目顺差与人口结构变迁

文章从一个多期人口代际交叠模型入手,分析了计划生育政策对人口结构和抚养比例的影响,同时还运用中国数据对人口抚养比与储蓄率、相对生产率差异与经常项目差额进行协整与因果检验。文章认为:计划生育政策并非不可持续,特定时期内放开该政策已经无法应对社会抚养高峰,而保持该政策则会获得一个较低人口总量的均衡人口结构。经常项目差额实际上只是储蓄的跨时空转移。人口年龄结构决定储蓄率,决定储蓄的跨时间转移,国家相对生产率差异决定储蓄的跨空间转移。空间上的这种转移并不改变一国国民的总福利;时间上的转移也不改变代与代之间的总福利。因此,不考虑人口结构、提高即期消费率刺激经济的做法值得商榷,过分关注短期经常项目差额并无太大必要。

Savings Rates,Current Account Surplus and the Change of Demographic Structure

From the angle of overlapping generations model,this paper analyses the effect of family planning policy on population structure and dependency rates.It also makes the co-integration and Granger-causality test of the relation between dependency rates and savings rates and the one between relative productivity differences and current account balance.It finds that the family planning policy can be sustainable;the release of this policy in a special time has not been able to cope with the height of social supp...