技术进步、产业结构、能源消费结构与中国能源效率——基于岭回归的分析

分析了技术进步、产业结构和能源消费结构三个指标共11个影响因素与能源效率之间的关系，并运用岭回归方法进行了实证研究。结果表明：技术进步显著地与能源效率正相关，技术进步会提高能源效率；第二产业比重的提高会降低能源效率；煤炭消费比重提高也会降低能源效率，而石油消费比重提高则会提高能源效率。此外，经济发展水平、对外开放和市场化均会显著地改善能源效率。

On Relationship between Technological Progress,Industry Structure,Energy Consumption Structure and Energy Efficiency in China --An Empirical Study Based on Ridge Regression

Fast economic growth along with low energy efficiency characterizes the trend of current social development in China. Since there are many influential factors being involved in energy use, seeking ways to improve energy efficiency in China is an important yet complex task. This paper analyzes the relationship between energy efficiency and eleven influential factors related to technological progress, industry structure, and energy consumption structure. A ridge regression analysis is performed with provincial statistics of year 2008 to empirically verify a number of hy- potheses. The analytic results show a strong and positive relationship between technological progress and energy efficiency, suggesting that adop- tion of advanced technology should be strongly recommended. On the other hand, the negative effects of secondary industry and coal consumption on energy efficiency are also evident in the results. In contrast, increasing the proportion of oil consumption may improve energy efficiency. What＇s more, economic growth, opening-up and marketization factors are all revealed to be able to significantly improve energy efficiency.