苏浙沪碳排放影响因素分解及比较分析

基于苏浙沪地区1998年-2008年时间序列数据，根据碳排放量的基本等式，计算出苏浙沪地区总的碳排放及单位GDP碳排放，并运用LMDI因素分解模型，横向分析人口数量、经济规模、行业碳排放强度及行业产出份额对苏浙沪地区整个碳排放变化的影响情况，纵向比较国民经济六大部门的行业碳排放强度变化对碳排放的贡献率。研究表明：江浙沪地区的单位GDP碳排放逐步减少，碳排放的增速与GDP增速关系密切，经济增长是碳排放量变化的主要拉动因素，行业碳排放强度变化抑制了CO2的排放，尤其工业部门的贡献最大。

The Factor Decomposition and Comparative Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai

Based on the time sequence data from 1998 to 2008, and according to the basic equation of carbon emissions, this paper calculates the total carbon emissions and the unit GDP carbon emissions in the areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai. Meanwhile, the LMDI factor decomposition model is applied to a horizontal analysis on the situation of the changes in carbon emissions of these areas, impacted by population, economic scale, intensity of industry carbon emissions and industry output share. A vertical comparison is conducted among six industries in the national economy, comparing their contribution rate to the carbon emissions based on the changes of the intensity of these industry carbon emissions. Studies show that the unit GDP carbon emissions is gradually decreasing in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai; the growth rate of carbon emissions is closely related with the GDP growth; the economic growth is the main pulling factor for the changes of carbon emissions; the change of intensity in the industry carbon emissions has much to do with CO2 emissions, to which the industrial sector makes greatest contribution.