中美经贸摩擦如何影响了大豆进口——基于贸易转移与创造效应视角

中美经贸摩擦背景下,中国对美国大豆进行反制,加征25%关税,那么,中国对美豆加征关税,会对中国大豆来源布局和产业产生怎样影响。文章利用寡头竞争理论,使用2002年1月~2020年3月中国海关数据,利用进口需求模型(AIDS),分析了加征关税对农产品贸易可能发生的贸易损害、贸易转移和贸易创造效应。实证结果表明,中国对美国大豆并不存在刚性依赖,对美加征关税将发生显著贸易转移效应和创造效应。即对美关税每增加1%,将会导致其对中国大豆出口下降1.29%,对巴西大豆进口上涨0.67%,对阿根廷大豆进口上涨0.66%,对其他国家进口上涨1.03%。中国市场增长和加征关税,将会造成国际大豆贸易创造效应,并激发非传统国家进入大豆贸易市场。

Diversion Effect and Creation Effect:A Case Study of Sino-US Economic and Trade Frictions

Because of Sino-US economic and trade frictions,China retaliates against the United States by imposing a 25% tariff on soybean. This paper analyzes the possible trade damage,trade diversion and trade creation effects caused by the tariff on agricultural products trade based on the oligopolistic competition theory and the Almost Ideal Demand System( AIDS) model by using China customs data from January 2002 to March 2020. The empirical results show that China does not have a rigid dependence on the soybean of the United States and the imposition of tariffs on the United States will exert significant trade diversion and creation effects. Every 1% increase in the tariffs on the United States will lead to a decrease of 1. 29% in its soybean exports to China,an increase of 0. 67% in its soybean imports from Brazil,an increase of 0. 66% in its soybean imports from Argentina and an increase of 1. 03% in its soybean imports from other countries. The growth of China’s market and the imposition of tariffs will cause the creation effect of international soybean trade and stimulate non-traditional countries to enter the soybean trade market.